Spin The Wheel › Guides › Why the same name comes up twice: chance of a repeat
Repeats are more common than people expect. With 10 names and 5 spins there is about a 70% chance at least one name repeats. Here is the table.
If winners stay on the wheel, the chance that k spins over N names include at least one repeat is 1 − N!/((N−k)! × Nk). It is the same maths as the birthday problem.
| Names (N) | 3 spins | 5 spins | 10 spins (or N if fewer) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 52.0% | 96.2% | 96.2% |
| 6 | 44.4% | 90.7% | 98.5% |
| 8 | 34.4% | 79.5% | 99.8% |
| 10 | 28.0% | 69.8% | >99.9% |
| 12 | 23.6% | 61.8% | 99.6% |
| 15 | 19.1% | 52.5% | 98.1% |
| 20 | 14.5% | 41.9% | 93.5% |
| 25 | 11.7% | 34.7% | 87.6% |
| 30 | 9.8% | 29.6% | 81.5% |
So a repeat is not a sign that the wheel is broken. If repeats are a problem for your group, remove names after they win.
No. With 10 names, the chance that the next spin repeats the last winner is 10%.
Last checked: 29 October 2026.